Demographic Transition in the Past and Projected Five Decades in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1967-2068: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

Main Article Content

H. I. Eririogu
C. A. Okezie
E. S. Ebukiba

Abstract

Aims: This study assessed the demographic transition in the past and projected five decades in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1967-2068: Empirical evidence from Nigeria.

Study Design: Past and projected time series data (between 1967 and 2068) were used for the study. The 1967-2068 data sets were resorted to due to lack of complete national data.

Place and Duration of Study: Past (between 1967 and 2017) and projected (between 2018 and 2068) five decades in Nigeria.

Methodology: The time series data (1967 to 2068) obtained from the 1950-2099 Interpolated Demographic Data of the United Nations Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, on Births, Deaths and Population levels, were used for the study. The 1967-2068 data sets were resorted to due to lack of complete national data. Data collected were analyzed using birth and death rate indices, demographic transition index, growth rate equation and granger causality statistics. Unit root, co-integration and error correction tests were also carried out.

Results: Results showed that in the past five decades (1967-2017), the mean crude birth and death rates per 1,000 populations were 43.9 and 18.0 respectively; while that of the projected five decades (2018-2068) was 28.9 and 7.9 respectively per 1000 populations. The demographic indices showed that in the past five decades (between 1967 and 2017), Nigeria was at the second stage (stage II) of demographic transition and expected to remain at this stage in the next five decades (between 2018 and 2068). Results also showed that the population growth rate in the past five decades was 2.584 percent, while the growth rate in the next five decades as projected was 2.098 percent. The population growth rate (2.098 percent) in the next five decades (between 2018 and 2068 as projected) is expected to decrease by an average of 0.486 percent. Results also showed that there is a mutual link between demographic transition and population growth.

Conclusion: Nigeria is currently at the second stage of demographic transition and expected to remain at this stage (stage II) in the next five decades. Demographic transition increases the prediction of population growth and vice versa.

Keywords:
Demographic transition, birth rate, death rate, female literacy, population growth, Nigeria.

Article Details

How to Cite
Eririogu, H. I., Okezie, C. A., & Ebukiba, E. S. (2020). Demographic Transition in the Past and Projected Five Decades in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1967-2068: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria. Journal of Scientific Research and Reports, 26(1), 56-71. https://doi.org/10.9734/jsrr/2020/v26i130214
Section
Original Research Article

References

Ranganathan S, Swain RB, Sumpter DJT. The demographic transition and economic growth: Implications for development policy. Palgrave Communications. 2015;1: 15033.
DOI: 10.1057/palcomms.2015.33

Tumbe C. Urbanisation, demographic transition and the growth of cities in India, 1870- 2020. The International Growth Centre (IGC) Working Paper; 2016.
C-35205-INC-1

Merson MH. International Public Health: Diseases, Programs, Systems and Policies. (2nd ed.). Amazon.com. USA: Jones and Bartlett Publishers Inc; 2006.

Cahu P, Fall F, Pongou, R. Demographic transition in Africa: The Polygyny and Fertility Nexus. Working Paper. 2012;1- 26.

Tacoli C, McGranahan G, Satterthwaite D. Urbanization, Rural–urban Migratio and Urban Poverty. Human Settlements Group International Institute for Environment and Development London. Background Paper. 2014;1-32.

Megeri MN, Kumar GM. Demographic transition and economic development in Karnataka. Journal of Quantitative Economics. 2018;16(1):173-183.

Henslin JM. Essentials of Sociology: A Down-to- Earth Approach. (8thed.). U.S.A. Allyn and Bacon; 2009.

Myrskylä, Mikko, Hans-Peter Kohler, Billari F. Advances in development reverse fertility declines,” Nature. 2009;460(6): 741–743.

Baudelle G, Olivier D. Changement Global, Mondialisation et Modèle De Transition Démographique: Réflexion sur une exception française parmi les pays développés. Historiens et Géographes. 2006;98;177–204.

UNFPA. Sustainable development and population dynamics: Placing People at the Centre; 2013.
Available:https://www.unfpa.org/press/sustainable-development-and-population-dynamics-
placing-people-centre

Eastwood R, Lipton M. Demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa: How big will the economic dividend be? Population Studies. 2011;127. iFirst article:1-27

Binswanger-Mkhize HP, Savastano S. Agricultural intensification: The status in six African countries. Food Policy. 2017;67: 26–40.

Ogunbameru OA. (Ed.). Sociology: A contemporary science of human interaction in society. Ibadan, Nigeria: Penthouse Publications (Nig.); 2009.

Rowland DT. Demographic Methods and Concepts. New York. Oxford University Press Inc; 2003.

Akokuwebe ME, Okunola RA. Demographic transition and rural development in Nigeria Developing Country Studies, 2015;5(6).
[ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)

Caldwell JC, Caldwell BK, Caldwell P, McDonald PF, Schindlmayr T. Demographic Transition Theory. Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Springer. 2006;418.

Weeks JR. Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues. Cengage Learning. 2014;94–97.

Lines CJ, Bolwell LH, Norman M. Revised GCSE Geography. 6th edn, London: Letts Educational. 1997;1-240.

Ocean Data and Information Network for Africa (ODINAFRICA). Nigeria; 2014.
Available:http://wwwodinafricaorg/indexphp/Nigeria

National Bureau of Statistics. Nigeria Poverty Assessment. NBS in Collaboration with World Bank and DFID. 2007;38-185.

World Factbook. Rank Order; 2017.
Available:http://wwwciagov/library/publications/theworldfactbook/rankorder/2147rankhtml

Federal Research Division. Country Profile: Nigeria; 2008.
Available:http://lcweb2locgov/frd/cs/profiles/Nigeriapdf

World Bank and United Nation Population Division; 2019.

UNICEF. The draft country programme document for Nigeria 2014-2017. 2013; E/ICEF/2013/P/L.7.

National Population Commission: In Central Bank of Nigeria. CBN Annual Report December 31st. CBN Corporate. Head Office, Central Business District Garki, Abuja. 2011;123-147, 258-267.

Akinyemi AI, Isiugo-Abanihe UC. Demographic dynamics and development in Nigeria African Population Studies. 2014;240.

World factbook. Nigeria People - Nigeria Population Pyramid-Age and Sex Structure; 2013.
Available:http://www.immigrationusa.com/world_fact_book_2012/nigeria/nigeria_people.html. CIA world Factbook: p. 3.

World factbook. Nigeria People- Nigeria Age Structure. CIA world Factbook; 2012.
Available:http://www.immigrationusa.com/world_fact_book_2012/nigeria/nigeria_people.html

National Population Commission (NPC) and ICF Macro. Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 2008. Abuja, Nigeria: National Population Commission and ICF Macro; 2009.
Available:https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/FR222/FR222.pdf

Jedwab R, Christiaensen L, Gindelsky M. Demography, urbanization and development: Rural push, urban pull and urban push? Policy Research Working Paper, Washington, DC: World Bank Group. 2015;7333.

Gujarati DN, Dawn CP. Basic Econometric, the fifth edition. McGraw- Hill International Edition, New York, USA; 2009.

Canning D, Sangeeta R, Yazbeck AS. Africa’s Demographic Transition: Dividend or Disaster? Overview booklet. Africa Development Forum series. World Bank: Washington, DC; 2015.

Chicoine LE. Education and Fertility: Evidence from a Policy Change in Kenya” Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn; 2012.
Available:http://econpapers.repec.org/p*aper/izaizadps/dp6778.htm

Gakidou E, Cowling K, Lozano R, Murray CJL. Increased educational attainment and its effect on child mortality in 175 countries between 1970 and 2009: a systematic analysis. Lancet Lond Engl. 2010;376: 959–74.

Murphy M. Cross-national patterns of intergenerational continuities in childbearing in developed countries. Biodemography Soc Biol. 2013;59:101– 26.

United Nations Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision: Interpolated Demographic Indicators byregion, subregion and country annually for 1950-2099.
POP/DB/WPP/Rev 2017/INT/F01

Aldieri L, Vinci CP. Education and fertility: an investigation into Italian families. Int. J. Soc. Econ. 2012;39:254–63.

Kim, J. Female education and its impact on fertility. IZA World of Labour. 2016;228:1 10.
DOI:10.15185/izawol.228

Cillier J. Getting to Africa’s demographic dividend. Institute for Security Studies. South Africa, ISS Africa Report 13. 2018;1-31.

Sheikh SM, Loney T. Is educating girls the best investment for South Asia? Association Between Female Education and Fertility Choices in South Asia: A Systematic Review of the Literature. Front. Public Health, 2018;6:172.

Ghosh R, Chakravarti P, Mansi K. Women’s empowerment and education: Panchayats and women’s self-help groups in India. Policy Futures Educ. 2015;13: 294–314.

United Nations Population Fund, UNFPA. The Power of Choice: Reproductive Rights and the Demographic Transition. United Nations Population Fund605 Third Avenue New York, NY 10158; 2018.