The Effect of the Climate Change Looming for Indian Summer Monsoon

Manisha Yadav *

Government College Narnaul, Department of Higher Education, Panchkula, Haryana, India.

*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.


In recent years, with global temperature rise, extreme weather and climate events, especially high temperature heat waves, floods and droughts, occur more frequently.  Recent observational and simulation projections with paleoclimate research reported that monsoon rainfall would become uncertain in the forthcoming century. One of the major problem in predicting the ISM is the accumulation of uncertainties arising from the complex role of Anthropocene activities on the climate system. This, in turn, would result in indecisions in the projected Gross Domestic Product (GDP), sustainable growth, and economy. About 21% of the Indian GDP is contributed by Agriculture (arguably the backbone of India's Economy) which itself highly dependent on the spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rainfall. This paper reviews the projection of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) in looming climate change. Evaluating the uncertainties in future monsoon behavior predictions would facilitate informed decision-making while formulating strategies for a sustainable Economy and energy policy. Reliable predictions of future ISM in the context of climate change are required while formulating adaptation strategies for sustainable growth and water availability.

Keywords: Climate change, global warming, Indian summer monsoon, future, GDP

How to Cite

Yadav , M. (2023). The Effect of the Climate Change Looming for Indian Summer Monsoon. Journal of Scientific Research and Reports, 29(9), 1–7.


Gadgil S. The Indian monsoon and its variability. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences. 2003 May;31(1): 429-67.

Haug GH, Gunther D, Peterson LC, Sigman DM, Hughen KA, Aeschlimann B. Climate and the collapse of Maya civilization. Science. 2003 Mar 14; 299(5613):1731-5.

Gadgil S, Gadgil S. The Indian monsoon, GDP and agriculture. Economic and political weekly. 2006 Nov 25:4887-95.

Turner AG, Annamalai H. Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon. Nature Climate Change. 2012 Aug; 2(8):587-95.

Gupta AK, Anderson DM, Overpeck JT. Abrupt changes in the Asian southwest monsoon during the Holocene and their links to the North Atlantic Ocean. Nature. 2003 Jan 23;421(6921):354-7.

Agnihotri R, Dutta K, Bhushan R, Somayajulu BL. Evidence for solar forcing on the Indian monsoon during the last millennium. Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 2002 May 15;198(3-4):521-7.

Sinha A, Kathayat G, Cheng H, Breitenbach SF, Berkelhammer M, Mudelsee M, Biswas J, Edwards RL. Trends and oscillations in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall over the last two millennia. Nature Communications. 2015 Feb 17;6(1):6309.

Mohtadi M, Prange M, Steinke S. Palaeoclimatic insights into forcing and response of monsoon rainfall. Nature. 2016 May 12;533(7602):191-9.

Field CB, Barros VR, editors. Climate Change 2014–Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Cambridge University Press; 2014 Dec 29.

Nazarenko L, Schmidt GA, Miller RL, Tausnev N, Kelley M, Ruedy R, Russell GL, Aleinov I, Bauer M, Bauer S, Bleck R. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS M odelE2. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 2015 Mar;7(1):244-67.

Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque JF, Masui T. The representative concentration pathways: An overview. Climatic Change. 2011 Nov;109:5-31.

Masson-Delmotte VP, Zhai P, Pirani SL, Connors C, Péan S, Berger N, Caud Y, Chen L, Goldfarb MI, Scheel Monteiro PM. Ipcc, 2021: Summary for policymakers. in: Climate change 2021: The physical science basis. contribution of working group i to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.

Rajeevan M, Bhate J, Kale JD, Lal B. High resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region: Analysis of break and active monsoon spells. Current science. 2006 Aug 10:296-306.

Goswami BN, Madhusoodanan MS, Neema CP, Sengupta D. A physical mechanism for North Atlantic SST influence on the Indian summer monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters. 2006 Jan; 33(2).

Roxy MK, Ritika K, Terray P, Murtugudde R, Ashok K, Goswami BN. Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient. Nature communications. 2015 Jun 16;6(1):7423.

Ali H, Mishra V. Contributions of dynamic and thermodynamic scaling in subdaily precipitation extremes in India. Geophysical Research Letters. 2018 Mar 16;45(5):2352-61.

Barnosky AD, Matzke N, Tomiya S, Wogan GO, Swartz B, Quental TB, Marshall C, McGuire JL, Lindsey EL, Maguire KC, Mersey B. Has the Earth’s sixth mass extinction already arrived?. Nature. 2011 Mar;471(7336):51-7.

Forster PM, Smith CJ, Walsh T, Lamb WF, Lamboll R, Hauser M, Ribes A, Rosen D, Gillett N, Palmer MD, Rogelj J. Indicators of global climate change 2022: Annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence. Earth System Science Data. 2023 Jun 8;15(6):2295-327.

Wang B, Liu J, Kim HJ, Webster PJ, Yim SY, Xiang B. Northern hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Niño/southern oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2013 Apr 2;110(14):5347-52.

Flato G, Marotzke J, Abiodun B, Braconnot P, Chou SC, Collins W, Cox P, Driouech F, Emori S, Eyring V, Forest C. Evaluation of climate models. InClimate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. 2014 Jun;741-866.

Douville H, Royer JF, Polcher J, Cox P, Gedney N, DB S, PJ V. Impact of CO2 doubling on the asian summer monsoon robust versus model-dependent responses. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II. 2000 Aug 25; 78(4):421-39.

Ueda H, Iwai A, Kuwako K, Hori ME. Impact of anthropogenic forcing on the Asian summer monsoon as simulated by eight GCMs. Geophysical Research Letters. 2006 Mar;33(6).

Kitoh A, Endo H, Krishna Kumar K, Cavalcanti IF, Goswami P, Zhou T. Monsoons in a changing world: A regional perspective in a global context. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2013 Apr 27;118(8):3053-65.

Lee JY, Yun KS, Babu A, Yang YM, Chung ES, Oh HE, Timmermann A, Ha KJ. Challenges in constraining future change of global land precipitation in CMIP6 models. InEGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts. 2020 May;13455.

Lee JY, Wang B. Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5. Climate Dynamics. 2014 Jan;42:101-19.

Chakraborty R, Guha BK, Talukdar S, Ratnam MV, Maitra A. Growth in mid-monsoon dry phases over the Indian region: Prevailing influence of anthropogenic aerosols. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 2019 Oct 7; 19(19):12325-41.

Xu C, Wang SY, Borhara K, Buckley B, Tan N, Zhao Y, An W, Sano M, Nakatsuka T, Guo Z. Asian-Australian summer monsoons linkage to ENSO strengthened by global warming. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 2023 Feb 18;6(1):8.