Time Series Analysis of Dry Chilli Price Trends in Byadagi Market, Haveri District, Karnataka, India
Mangala C. Devihosoor *
Department of Agricultural Statistics, College of Agriculture, Dharwad UAS, Dharwad-580 005. India.
Ashalatha K. V.
Department of Agricultural Statistics, College of Agriculture, Dharwad UAS, Dharwad-580 005. India.
Vasantha Kumari J.
Department of Agricultural Statistics, College of Agriculture, Dharwad UAS, Dharwad-580 005. India.
Huchesh Budihal
Department of Agricultural Statistics, College of Agriculture, Dharwad UAS, Dharwad-580 005. India.
Basavaraj A. Arabhanvi
Department of Agricultural Statistics, College of Agriculture, Dharwad UAS, Dharwad-580 005. India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Spices are conventional aromatic vegetables mainly utilized for flavoring of food. Among these, chilli (capsicum annuum), is one of most important spice used around the world. The present study examined dry chillies price behaviour in the Byadagi market of Haveri District, Karnataka. The study was based on secondary data from 2000-2022 collected in Agmarketnet.in. Time series analysis involves a complex mix of four main components: trend (Tt), seasonal (St), cyclical (Ct), and irregular (It) variations. The result revealed that there was a significant increasing trend in prices of dry chillies from 2000-2022. The Multiplicative model of TCSI was used in this study, the polynomial regression was also used for the trend analysis and found the Third-degree model best fit. The highest seasonal index was found in January (112.44) while the lowest seasonal index in the month of July (93.28) the analysis of seasonal indices in the price of dry chilli would help to understand the status of dry chilli marketing in the Byadagi market. The dry chilli prices exhibit no oscillatory movement and no definite periodicity during the study period.
Keywords: Cyclical variations, moving average method, irregular price fluctuations, price behavior, seasonal indices, trend analysis