Modeling and Forecasting of Potato Production in Rajasthan and their Yield Sustainability
Aashish
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, JNKVV, Jabalpur, India.
Kamini Yadav
Department of Agronomy, College of Agriculture, Rewa (JNKVV), India.
Lokesh Kumar
Mahatama Gandhi Chitrakoot Gramodaya Vishwavidyalaya, Chitrakoot (MGCGV), Satna, Madhya Pradesh,India.
Neha Mishra
Department of Mathematics and Statistics School of Physical Sciences, Amity University, Mohali, Punjab, India.
Radha Singh
College of Agriculture, Rewa, (J.N.K.V.V), India.
S.K. Tripathi
College of Agriculture, Rewa, (J.N.K.V.V), India.
Prakash Kumar Kumawat
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, JNKVV, Jabalpur, India.
P. Mishra *
College of Agriculture, Rewa, (J.N.K.V.V), India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
This study examined trends, sustainability, and forecasted potato area, production, and productivity in India and Rajasthan from 1970 to 2030. Annual potato production data was analyzed using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The models were trained using data from 1970 to 2020 and assessed with a validation set from 2021 to 2023. In the training set, a box exhibited the optimal performance. The ARIMA models yielded the minimal predicted errors. The leading models project potato production till 2030. In 2023, potato production in Rajasthan and India was 260.50 thousand tonnes and 61,250.50 thousand tonnes, respectively. By 2030, Rajasthan and India are projected to yield 301.31 thousand tonnes and 63,318.26 thousand tonnes, respectively. The predictions can aid in food security planning and agricultural policy formulation in the region. Rajasthan and India exhibit significant sustainability in potato yield for the period from 1998 to 2023.
Keywords: Trend, sustainability, ARIMA, time series, policy