Decadal Trend Analysis of Maximum Temperature at Nagpur District of Maharashtra, India
Sachin Yadavrao Wankhede *
Krishi Vigyan Kendra, ICAR- Central Institute for Cotton Research, Wardha Rd, Panjari, Nagpur, 441108, Maharashtra, India.
Ramkrushna Gandhiji Idapuganti
Krishi Vigyan Kendra, ICAR- Central Institute for Cotton Research, Wardha Rd, Panjari, Nagpur, 441108, Maharashtra, India.
Ulhas Vyankatrao Galkate
Krishi Vigyan Kendra, ICAR- Central Institute for Cotton Research, Wardha Rd, Panjari, Nagpur, 441108, Maharashtra, India.
Yenumula Gerard Prasad
ICAR- Central Institute for Cotton Research, Wardha Rd, Panjari, Nagpur, 441108, Maharashtra, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
An attempt was made for decadal trend analysis of maximum temperature for monthly, seasonal and annual time series over a period of 1985 to 2024 using the Mann-Kendall Test and Sen’s Slope Estimator method at Nagpur district of Maharashtra. The annual trend in maximum temperatures from 1985 to 2024 showed non-significant increase of 0.004°C. Significant increase of maximum temperature was observed during Northeast monsoon season at 90% confidence level, with a rise of 0.025°C. Winter and summer temperatures exhibit minor, non-significant decreases. Among the months, November showed significant increase of 0.024°C. Between 1985 and 1994, the annual maximum temperatures showed no significant trend. The SW Monsoon experienced non-significant decrease of 0.025°C, while the NE Monsoon season showed a non-significant increase of 0.033°C. Winter recorded increase of 0.088°C, while summer showed no trend. January noticed non-significant increase of 0.238°C. From 1995 to 2004, a statistically significant annual increase of 0.100°C was observed. The NE Monsoon and summer seasons experienced significant increasing trends, with increases of 0.220°C and 0.214°C, respectively. The SW Monsoon season, however, showed a non-significant decreasing trend of 0.150°C. April experienced a significant rise in maximum temperatures of 0.267°C, while August showed a significant decrease of 0.167°C. During 2005–2014, the annual trend showed non-significant decrease of 0.013°C. The NE Monsoon season and winter exhibited decreasing trends, with winter showing a significant decline of 0.100°C at the 90% confidence level. Monthly non-significant decreasing trends was observed during January (-0.125°C) and February (-0.133°C). For the recent decades 2015–2024, annual maximum temperatures observed, non-significant decline of 0.020°C. The SW Monsoon season exhibited, non-significant increase of 0.020°C, while the NE Monsoon and winter seasons experienced non-significant decreases. Summer showed, non-significant decreasing trend, with decline of 0.230°C. Among monthly trends, April (-0.320°C) and May (-0.230°C) exhibited the most notable non-significant decreases.
Keywords: Climate change, maximum temperature, trends analysis, climate resilient agriculture, Vidarbha