Statistical Modeling and Trend Analysis of Soybean Production in Selected States of India
Parwati Chaudhary
Department of Agricultural Statistics, Acharya Narendra Deva University of Agriculture & Technology, Ayodhya- 224229, India.
Manish Kumar
Department of Agricultural Statistics, Acharya Narendra Deva University of Agriculture & Technology, Ayodhya- 224229, India.
Gyan Prakash *
Department of Agricultural Statistics, Acharya Narendra Deva University of Agriculture & Technology, Ayodhya- 224229, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
In the present paper, the time series analysis of Soybean production in some selected states of India has been carried out by fitting statistical models, viz. linear, exponential, Quadratic and cubic models. The secondary time series data on the production of soybean have been utilized for the analysis. The trend values have been evaluated by fitting the concerned models, and the validity of the models has been tested by using the Chi-square (x2) test statistic. Moreover, the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), and relative mean absolute percentage error (RMAPE) have been computed to reveal the suitability of the concerned models for exploring the trend patterns of soybean production in the concerned states of India.
Keywords: Time series, linear model, exponential model, quadratic model, cubic model, chi-square test, coefficient of determination