Agricultural Trade Performance of India: Insights into Growth and Competitiveness
Hemanth D B
*
Division of Agricultural Economics, ICAR-IARI, New Delhi, India.
Nithyashree M.L
Division of Agricultural Economics, ICAR-IARI, New Delhi, India.
M. Balasubramanian
Division of Agricultural Economics, ICAR-IARI, New Delhi, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Aims: The study aims to analyze the dynamics of export and import growth, variability, and the competitiveness of Indian agricultural commodities. It also examines the comparative advantage and revealed competitiveness of Indian farm exports in the global market.
Study Design: A descriptive and analytical study based on secondary time-series data (2013–2022), to assess India’s agricultural trade performance.
Place and Duration of Study: The study used data from the ITC Trade Map and Agricultural Statistics at a Glance (Government of India) for the period 2013 to 2022.
Methodology: Analytical tools applied include the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) to measure export and import growth, the Cuddy–Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI) to assess variability, and trade indices such as Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), and Revealed Competitive Advantage (RC) to evaluate specialization and competitiveness.
Results: India's total agricultural exports grew steadily, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.08%, while imports increased by 9.57%, resulting in a consistent trade surplus. The Cuddy–Della Valle Instability Index indicated moderate variability in exports (25.59%) and in imports (27.4%). Among commodities, sugar (19.37%), rice (10.07%), and marine products (6.58%) recorded the highest export growth, while oilseeds and coffee showed declining trends. The Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) analysis indicated that rice (RCA 16.8–19.8), spices (13.0–18.3), tea (4.8–5.8), and copra (up to 11.1) had substantial comparative advantages, whereas wheat (0.07–1.7) and maize (0.23–1.01) exhibited weak or declining competitiveness. The Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) values for rice (0.90), spices (0.88), and tea (0.11) confirmed India's strong export specialization in these commodities. Overall, India maintained a favorable agricultural trade balance and global export presence, particularly in traditional crop sectors.
Conclusion: The findings indicate a steady improvement in India’s agricultural exports, though competitiveness is weakening for certain cereals and horticultural crops. Policy measures to promote export diversification, value addition, and stable trade infrastructure can enhance India’s long-term agricultural trade performance.
Keywords: Agricultural commodities, analytical tools, economic development