Diabetes Prevalence and Its Effect on Economic Growth: A Non-linear Analysis

Declan Chibueze Onyechege *

Reykjavik University, Reykjavik, Iceland.

*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.


Abstract

Diabetes is one of the non-communicable and chronic diseases that occur because of the inability of the pancreas to produce enough insulin in the body, as well when the body cannot use the insulin it produces. According to World Health Organization (WHO), diabetes prevalence has been on the increase both in developed and developing nations in recent times and many people are ignorant of diabetes disease, and its management, which leads to alarming mortality rate. Such situation becomes a great challenge to the world and government of many countries knowing that high mortality rates, because of diabetes, lead to loss of human capital, which would have contributed to economic growth and development. This study is conducted to analyze the prevalence of diabetes and its effect on economic growth, hence the need to manage it effectively has become the chief cornerstone towards its high mortality rate incidence, which all country governments should adopt. This study will use secondary data collected from reliable sources for its approach. The collection of data is cross sectional, from different countries in the world which is randomly selected. The methodology used was non-linear model relationship among the variables and the method of analysis was Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model and marginal effects. The findings show that estimated adult diabetes population (EADP) has a negative impact on economic growth (GDP/C) when diabetes death related (DDR) is at its mean and minimum values and positive impact when DDR is at its maximum. This implies that at high rate of deaths because of diabetes, economic growth flourishes, because economic burden because of Diabetes is decreased. Also, EADP has positive relationship with GDP/C when cost per person with diabetes (CPPD) is at mean and maximum value and negative relationship when CPPD is at its minimum value. This implies that when people are wealthy or rich, EADP will increase, because they have enough money to spend on health care and junk related food intakes. The negative relationship between EADP and GDP/C when CPPD is at minimum implies that government can no longer support diabetes patients hence decrease in GDP/C leads to minimum expenditure on health care for diabetic patients. In conclusion, EADP has a negative impact on GDP/C considering DDR at mean and minimum value and CPPD at its minimum value. This result proves a dilemma in the world because of diabetes.

Keywords: Cost Per Person with Diabetes (CPPD), Diabetes Death Related Rate (DDR), Estimated Adult Diabetes Population (EADP), Income Per Capita (GDP/C), Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Marginal Effect Analysis


How to Cite

Onyechege, Declan Chibueze. 2026. “Diabetes Prevalence and Its Effect on Economic Growth: A Non-Linear Analysis”. Journal of Scientific Research and Reports 32 (2):164-73. https://doi.org/10.9734/jsrr/2026/v32i23959.

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