Climate Change as a Conditional Opportunity for Plant Growers in India: A Critical Narrative Review of Evidence, Limits and Competing Risks
Prajnashree Mallick
College of Forestry, Odisha University of Agriculture & Technology, Bhubaneswar, India.
Nirakar Bhol *
College of Forestry, Odisha University of Agriculture & Technology, Bhubaneswar, India.
Subhasmita Parida
Department of Forestry, Central University of Odisha, Koraput, Odisha, India.
Uttam Kumar Sahoo
Department of Forestry, Mizoram University, Aizawl, India.
Sushree Rojalina Mahapatra
College of Forestry, Odisha University of Agriculture & Technology, Bhubaneswar, India.
Abhiram Dash
College of Agriculture, Odisha University of Agriculture & Technology, Bhubaneswar, India.
Dileswar Nayak
School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Climate change is conventionally analysed as a threat to Indian agriculture, yet a growing body of scattered literature also documents mechanisms through which warming, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and shifting agroclimatic boundaries could open new production possibilities for plant growers. This critical narrative review synthesises and evaluates that literature for India, asking whether the "opportunity" framing is empirically defensible once set against the dominant evidence of risk. Evidence was drawn from peer-reviewed journal articles, systematic reviews and institutional sources identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, PubMed Central, Crossref-linked publisher platforms and general academic web searching. Four candidate mechanisms of opportunity were examined: the carbon dioxide fertilisation effect on C3 crop physiology; poleward and upward shifts in agroclimatic suitability that create new production zones, particularly in the Himalayan belt; the market-mediated expansion of protected and controlled-environment cultivation; and diversification into high-value, climate-tolerant horticultural, floricultural and seed-spice crops. Each mechanism carries genuine, mechanistically grounded support, but the review finds that realised gains are consistently narrower, more localised and more contingent on capital, infrastructure and institutional support than optimistic summaries suggest. Elevated carbon dioxide raises biomass and yield in controlled settings but is substantially offset by concurrent warming, nutrient dilution and water limitation under field conditions. Zone shifts documented for apple, avocado, arecanut, large cardamom and tea simultaneously displace established production at lower elevations, so that reported gains are redistributive rather than additive at the national scale. Protected cultivation and crop diversification generate credible household-level returns but remain constrained by capital cost, fragmented landholding and adoption inequality. Set against this narrower opportunity space, heat stress, water scarcity, and pest and pathogen range expansion continue to dominate national-level yield trends for staple and horticultural crops. The review concludes that climate change is best characterised not as a net opportunity for Indian plant growers but as an agent of redistribution that generates identifiable, geographically concentrated, and capital-contingent openings within an overall trajectory of increasing risk. Future research priorities and policy implications are outlined accordingly.
Keywords: Climate change adaptation, Indian horticulture, carbon dioxide fertilisation, agroclimatic zone shift, protected cultivation, crop diversification