An Analysis of Market Types and Price Behaviour of Gram (Cicer arietinum L.) in Hanumangarh District of Rajasthan, India
Pankaj Kumar
Tantia University, Sri Ganganagar, Rajasthan - 335002, India.
Dropati Saran
Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tantia University, Sri Ganganagar, Rajasthan - 335002, India.
Mukesh Kumar
Department of Horticulture, Faculty of Agriculture, Tantia University, Sri Ganganagar, Rajasthan - 335002, India.
K. P. Singh
Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tantia University, Sri Ganganagar, Rajasthan - 335002, India.
J. S. Ranawat
Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture, Tantia University, Sri Ganganagar, Rajasthan - 335002, India.
Vishal Ghorela *
Department of Agri-Business Management, Institute of Agri Business Management, Swami Keshwanand Rajasthan Agricultural University, Bikaner, Rajasthan - 334006, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Background: Gram (chickpea) production and marketing are important to farm households in Hanumangarh district, Rajasthan. Evidence jointly addressing crop growth, seasonal prices, growers’ perceptions of price factors and marketing channels at district level remains limited.
Aims: To estimate growth in the area, production and productivity of gram, to study and forecast its price behaviour, to rank the factors affecting its price, and to examine the relationship between market types and price in Hanumangarh district of Rajasthan, India.
Study Design: A descriptive-cum-analytical design combining a primary cross-sectional farm survey with secondary time-series data.
Place and Duration of Study: Nohar and Bhadra blocks of Hanumangarh district, Rajasthan; the primary survey was conducted during the 2024–25 rabi marketing season, with secondary data for 2004–05 to 2023–24 (area, production, productivity) and 2013–2025 (monthly modal prices).
Methodology: A total of 120-gram growers were selected by multistage sampling and interviewed using a structured, pre-tested schedule. The Compound Growth Rate (CGR) and seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were used for growth analysis and price forecasting, the Weighted Mean Score (WMS) for ranking price-determining factors, and Pearson’s correlation for the market-type–price relationship.
Results: Area, production and productivity grew at 3.46%, 5.99% and 2.45% per annum (P < .001). Prices showed a rising trend with marked seasonality (trough in February–April, peak in August–September); the SARIMA (1,1,2) (0,1,2) ₁₂ model forecast prices of ₹5,668–₹6,520 per quintal (MAPE 2.40%). Arrivals (WMS 4.37), quality (4.32) and demand–supply (4.22) were the most influential factors. Market organisation correlated strongly and positively with price (r = 0.769, n = 210, P < .001), explaining about 59% of price variation, with the regulated mandi and e-NAM giving the highest prices.
Conclusion: The type of market significantly determines gram price realisation; promoting organised marketing channels, strengthening storage to exploit the seasonal pattern, and improving grading and market information can raise growers’ incomes.
Keywords: Gram (Cicer arietinum L.), chickpea markets, compound growth rate, seasonal price behaviour, SARIMA forecasting, weighted mean score