Relationship between Seasonal Streamflow Variability and their Evolution through Time: A Case Study Over Avoca River Catchment
Saqib Ur Rehman *
Mathematical Sciences Research Center, Federal Urdu University of Arts, Science and Technology, Karachi, Pakistan.
Kashif Saleem
Department of Mathematics, Govt. Jinnah College, Karachi, Pakistan.
Absar Ahmed
Mathematical Sciences Research Center, Federal Urdu University of Arts, Science and Technology, Karachi, Pakistan.
Muhammad Abdul Basit Khan
Mathematical Sciences Research Center, Federal Urdu University of Arts, Science and Technology, Karachi, Pakistan.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
It has been widely documented that ENSO factors play vital rule in climate variability over many parts of the globe. In this study, used only high pressure centers and their location as a variable and found useful explanation in the variability of the Avoca River. It is clearly evident in this study that not only the magnitude of the pressure, but also the position of the center is important in studying the variability of the Avoca River. Analysis of the long term trends in the indices were computed, and found to have a significant increasing correlation with the pressure of the Indian Ocean while South Pacific did not show any significant increasing or decreasing trend. Streamflow data for the May- August (MJJA) data also showed an increasing trend in the streamflow, which shows that streamflow and Indian Ocean high pressure has significant correlation, which is confirmed by the correlation matrix. A multiple regression model has been constructed using Indian Ocean High pressure and longitude and South Pacific high longitude, which explains 22% of the variability of the streamflow in Avoca River.
Keywords: ENSO, climate variability, climate variabilitycorrelation and multiple regression analysis.