Computational Model for the Prognosis, Control and Simulation of Ebola Virus Disease
O. Sarjiyus
Department of Computer Science, Adamawa State University, Mubi, Nigeria.
J. Sunday *
Department of Mathematics, Adamawa State University, Mubi, Nigeria.
I. Manga
Department of Computer Science, Adamawa State University, Mubi, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) has garnered public interest mostly because of its low survival rate compared with most other modern epidemic diseases. This research is hinged on the Prognosis, Control and Simulation of the EVD. A model called the Susceptible-Latent-Infected-Recovered (SLIR) model was adopted in this research to study the trend of the disease. From the stability analysis, it was found that the necessary and sufficient condition for the control and possibly, total eradication of the disease in West Africa is that the product of total breakdown of the susceptible and latent classes most be less than the product of the total removal rates from both the latent and the infectious classes. The computational method adopted in this research also gives the values of parameters needed to hold the epidemic under control, reduce mortality rate arising from the EVD, reduce the rate of infected class and increase the rate of recovered class.
Keywords: Control, EVD, prognosis, model and simulation